SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COUNTY January 2009-June 2009 Looking at the Home Estate/PUD market for the greater Santa Barbara area from Carpinteria to Goleta including Montecito and Hope Ranch for the first 6 months of ’09 the numbers of sales finally rose into the high 70’s to low 80’s ranges which is about 20% above the numbers of sales in June ’08. Even more encouraging is the numbers of properties that entered escrows which was in the 90’s for the month of June ’09 compared to the low 80s’ for June ’08. With the numbers of sales rising, the median sales price slid back for June to the mid $800,000s after rising each month since February. The median list price for homes entering escrow also is in the mid $800,000 range so that should be about where the median sales prices are going to stay for at least the short term future. The sales price to original list price ratio rose in June to the high 80’s low 90’s after dipping down into the high 70’s for May. This means that prices are starting to stiffen particularly in that hot $600,000 to $800,000+ range. After falling from April to May the inventory continued to decline in June. The median list price for the approximately 150 new listings that came on the market in June remains at about a $1.2 million median list price level with the overall inventory continuing at about a $1.85 million median list price level for the something like 625 available homes. Looking at the districts, Carpinteria/Summerland has almost exactly the same numbers of sales as we experienced in ’08 through the end of June and is even slightly ahead of last year’s pace but the median sales price has fallen by about 35% to approximately $645,000. In Montecito sales remain sluggish but are starting to climb closer to the ’08 level. The median sales price has fallen about $1.2 million from June ’08 however to the current number of about $2.35 million. In the East of State St area sales are down about 5% from where they were in June ’08 and the median sales price has fallen about 24% to right around $900,000. Over on the West Side sales are slightly above where they were last year but the median sales price is down about 26% to the current level of approximately $735,000. For Hope Ranch sales are about where they were last year with the median sales price residing currently at about $2.55 million approximately $30,000 above where it was through June ’08. For Goleta South despite declining inventory, sales are almost exactly where they were last year and even slightly ahead of the ’08 pace with the median sales price presently residing at about $715,00 which is only approximately $35,000 below where it was last year at this time. For Goleta North the lack of inventory has finally caught up with the area and the sales are down about 9% with the median sales price down by about 17% to the current number of roughly $700,000. With the numbers of sales rising and the numbers of pending properties continuing to surge we’re going getting closer to the sales pace set during ’08. The median sales price should remain in the mid $800,000 range throughout the summer with perhaps a slight rise for the next couple of months. It is rumored that there were will be another round of foreclosures hitting the market in September which will affect the pricing structure and overall inventory but for the time being sales are moving forward and prices are stabilizing. For the Condo market in the Santa Barbara area the flood gates finally opened for sales in June. The previous 2 months saw sales in the mid 20’s but for June the sales were in the 40’s. A lot of those pending listings that had been stacking up finally came into the Sold column in June and it looks like the party will continue because the numbers of condos going into escrow stayed in the 40’s range. But, while the numbers of sold condos rose, the median sales price for those condos slid back into the mid $400,000 level and it looks like that’s about the level we’ll stay at because the median list price of the condos entering escrow was also at the mid $400,000 level. The sales price to original list price ratio slid back from the high 80’s in May to the mid 80’s for June which means that the sellers had to give back more than what they had in the previous month which is indicated by the fall in median sales price. The days on the market which is the time from when a property is listed until it goes into escrow went up in June to about 90 days from the mid 70’s in May indicating that buyers are taking a couple of more weeks to make up their mind before submitting an offer. Statistics For Entire MLS
As of Tuesday, July 7, 2009 8:41:10 AM
From 6/1/2009 to 6/30/2009
SANTA BARBARA Home & Estates/ PUDs
District of '05 - CARPINTERIA-SUMMERLAND', '10 - MONTECITO', '15 - EAST OF STATE', '20 - WEST OF STATE', '25 - HOPE RANCH', '30 - GOLETA SOUTH', '35 - GOLETA NORTH'; | Total | Total List Volume | Median List Price | Average List Price | DOM | Total Sold Volume | Median Sold Price | Average Sold Price | | Sold | 79 | $106,124,399 | $875,000 | $1,343,346 | 75 | $99,105,150 | $850,000 | $1,254,495 | | List/Sold | 18 | $26,423,599 | $995,000 | $1,467,977 | 85 | $24,857,900 | $938,000 | $1,380,994 | | Co-Broker | 61 | $79,700,800 | $875,000 | $1,306,570 | 71 | $74,247,250 | $850,000 | $1,217,168 | | New | 151 | $369,069,390 | $1,225,000 | $2,444,168 | 15 | | | | | | Pending | 93 | $114,274,965 | $850,000 | $1,228,763 | 92 | | | | | | Active In Range | 739 | $2,664,559,444 | $1,795,000 | $3,605,628 | 126 | | | | | | Current Active | 619 | $2,297,013,464 | $1,850,000 | $3,710,845 | 133 | | | | | |
SUMMARY If priced with value in mind, entry level housing (up to $900,000) is selling quickly with multiple offers at times. Upper price tiers have been experiencing longer DOM, and any home that is priced aggressively in favor of the Seller, tends to sit on the market much longer, and is generally subject to a final selling price substantially lower than the original list price. Selling prices in Santa Barbara South County appear to have bottomed out Jan/Feb of this year. Since then, Santa Barbara South County has enjoyed a nearly 35% +/- increase in sales volume since the first quarter 2009. Qualified Buyers are able to get loans. However, the underwriting guidelines are very stringent. In addition to lengthy documentation requirements, the requirements often change at the last minute, making for a bumpy funding process. Both Buyers and Sellers need to be patient and realize that for the time being, this is the nature of the lending process. Meanwhile, rates are very good, so anyone who is thinking about buying a house, should get started as soon as possible. |